Trade Cycles: Phases, Theories & Accelerator
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Trade cycle real activity, income, employment, investment और profits के recurrent but not strictly periodic fluctuations हैं। Peak और trough turning points हैं; depression every trough का synonym नहीं, बल्कि severe/prolonged downturn की term है।
| Phase / point | Typical pattern |
|---|---|
| Recovery / expansion | Demand, investment, output और employment बढ़ते हैं |
| Boom / peak | High activity; peak upper turning point |
| Recession / contraction | Demand/investment weakness, output cuts, unemployment बढ़ सकती है |
| Trough | Lower turning point; इसके बाद recovery possible |
| Theory | Main mechanism |
|---|---|
| Hawtrey | Bank-credit expansion/contraction drives monetary fluctuations |
| Hayek | Credit और market rate below natural rate से distorted overinvestment |
| Schumpeter | Clusters of innovations, credit, imitation and changing profits |
| Keynes | Expectations/MEC collapse → investment fall; multiplier spreads contraction |
| Samuelson multiplier–accelerator | Consumption-income और induced investment interaction; dynamics depend on parameters |
| Hicks ceiling–floor account | Full-employment ceiling और investment lower bound / autonomous-demand floor bound fluctuations |
Simple Accelerator Formula
Output change से induced net investment निकालें; fixed capital–output ratio assumption।
Worked example: v = 3; income 800 → 850 → 830 → induced investment +150, then −60।
Interpretation: Negative value desired disinvestment/net capital adjustment है; gross investment cannot always adjust instantly below replacement constraints।
- Output level high but unchanged हो तो simple accelerator induced net investment zero दे सकता है; replacement investment फिर भी हो सकती है।
- Unplanned inventory accumulation weak sales का signal है; firms output घटा सकती हैं।
- Hawtrey और Hayek दोनों credit देखते हैं, लेकिन Hayek capital allocation/overinvestment पर जोर देते हैं।
- K multiplier spending से income change बताता है; accelerator v output change से investment change बताता है।
Active Recall / Writing Practice
- Trend के आसपास non-identical cycles बनाकर turning points label करें।
- Theory → economist → trigger की table बिना notes लिखें।
Notes बन्द करके लिखें। Review: next day, third day और seventh day. Notes delivery और mastery अलग हैं।
Memory recap: Phases: कहाँ? Theory: क्यों? Multiplier: spending→income; accelerator: output change→investment।
Topic Test · 12 MCQs
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Your Revision Result
Your answer: · Correct answer: A. Expansion से contraction का upper turning point
Peak turning point है; high-activity boom phase से related है लेकिन पूरा phase नहीं।
Your answer: · Correct answer: C. Recovery/expansion
Trough lower turning point है, जिसके बाद activity recover हो सकती है; full employment तुरंत guaranteed नहीं।
Your answer: · Correct answer: B. Fluctuations दोबारा आते हैं, पर intervals/amplitudes identical जरूरी नहीं
Recurrence strict periodicity नहीं है; duration और intensity बदल सकती हैं।
Your answer: · Correct answer: B. Bank-credit expansion और contraction
Hawtrey monetary/credit mechanism को cyclical fluctuations में central मानते हैं।
Your answer: · Correct answer: A. Credit-driven market rate natural rate से नीचे हो और investment structure distort हो
Hayek credit-induced relative investment/capital-allocation distortion पर जोर देते हैं।
Your answer: · Correct answer: C. Clusters of innovations और associated credit/investment
Innovation clusters, entrepreneurial investment और subsequent imitation Schumpeterian mechanism हैं।
Your answer: · Correct answer: B. MEC गिरती, investment घटती और multiplier income contraction फैलाता है
Lower expected capital returns investment collapse ला सकती हैं; induced spending rounds contraction amplify करते हैं।
Your answer: · Correct answer: D. Consumption-income और induced-investment feedback
Income-induced consumption तथा output-change-induced investment के interaction की dynamics parameters पर depend करती है।
Your answer: · Correct answer: B. +120 और −30
पहला ΔY40→3×40=120; फिर ΔY−10→3×−10=−30।
Your answer: · Correct answer: A. Induced net investment zero; replacement investment फिर भी हो सकती है
Accelerator change in output पर है:4×0=0। Replacement/gross investment अलग components हैं।
Your answer: · Correct answer: D. 100
Iinduced=v×ΔY=2.5×40=100।
Your answer: · Correct answer: B. Full-employment ceiling और investment-related lower bound
Hicksian multiplier–accelerator account full-employment upper ceiling तथा investment/autonomous-demand से जुड़ी lower constraint से fluctuations को bound करता है।
Numerical routine: identify concept → select formula → substitute → interpret. Wrong/guessed/slow items को 24 hours बाद फिर solve करें।